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Climate change could lead to wars worldwide14 December, 2007 Global change in climate is likely to strengthen old conflicts and set off new tensions that could eventually lead to full-scale war or violence in many parts of the world. According to a report, prepared by academics of Germany and Switzerland for the United Nations Environment Program, areas at risk of greater insecurity include northern and southern Africa, central Asia, India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, China, parts of the Caribbean and Andean and Amazonian regions of Latin America. The population of North Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean is estimated to grow by 40% by 2025 even as rainfall and agricultural production will decline. The report, titled Climate Change as a Security Risk, suggests the following as the likely causes of conflict induced by climate change: degradation of freshwaters, decline in food production, increase in storm and flood disasters, and environmentally induced migration. The report also identifies vulnerable states and societies – such as those that are in political transition – and have a low level of economic activity, often with large/high population densities. The report Climate Change as a Security Risk identifies the following as regional hotspots: North Africa's Sahel region: Climate change may increase inter-state conflicts due to scarcity of water and other resources. It will also worsen internal unrest and tensions in some countries including Algeria and Morocco. Many countries in North Africa are “characterised by poverty, high youth unemployment, wide social discrepancies, and scanty state social security networks.” The situation will get worse following increased migration to the north by people living in the Sahel region and increased migration from the rural areas to cities. After 2025-2030, there could be conflicts over water between Egypt and other countries and could trigger insecurity that is “felt far beyond the region,” says the report. Central Asia: Warming that would be above average and retreat of glaciers will aggravate water and agricultural problems in a region already marked by political and social tensions and civil war (Tajikistan). India, Pakistan, Bangladesh: The diminishing glaciers in the Himalayas will endanger water supplies. China: Climate change will intensify existing environmental stresses from air and soil degradation. Cyclones and sea level rise will affect the populous south coast. Hans Schellnhuber, lead author of the report Climate Change as a Security Risk and director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and a visiting professor at Oxford university, commented, “Without resolute counteraction, climate change will overstretch many societies’ adaptive capacities within coming decades. This could result in destabilization and violence jeopardizing national and international security to a new degree.”
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