Who will be the winner of the 2009 Lok Sabha elections?

Sunday, March 15, 2009, 11:29
This news item was posted in India category and has 20 Comments so far.

Nice question. Can anyone predict this? No. But it is a fun topic to explore nevertheless.

Right now, there are three major groupings for the 2009 Lok Sabha Elections: They are the UPA (United Progressive Alliance), NDA (National Democratic Alliance) and the so-called Third Front.

Major parties in the UPA include the Indian National Congress, Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal RJD, SHarad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), Jharkhand Mukti Morcha and Lok Janshakti Party (LJP).

In the NDA, the main party are the Bhartiya Janata Party, Shiv Sena, Janata Dal (United), Akali Dal, and Indian National Lok Dal (INLD).

The Third Front (that’s not an official name yet) has a number of small parties such as the Telegu Desam party (TDP), janata Dal Secular (JD-S), Revutionary Socialist Party RSP – all propped up by the Communist party of India ( Marxist) or CPI-M and the Communist Party of India, CPI. Yes, they are part of the Third Front too.

So who has a chance to emerge winner after the 2009 Elections?

To tell it like it is, it could be anyone. The NDA or the UPA may emerge the front-runner with a majority, or just a front-runner who is not an outright winner and who needs the support of other parties from either the other formation, or from independent parties like the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Samajwadi party.

Scenario 1 UPA emerges clear winner in Lok Sabha elections

The national media seems to think there is a good chance for this, but media often gets carried away by the general mood in Delhi, and by the latest state election results. In the recent state elections, Congress did better than many expected, and in this line of thought, they would continue the winning streak alongwith other partners in the UPA, and will be able to scrape through with a simple majority.

Scenario 2 NDA Emerges clear winner

This is also possible, if the recent state elections are an aberration, and BJP really hasn’t been as badly damaged as many seem to think. Overall, the party seems to be opposing the UPA for opposition’s sake, and often is caught between different ideas on the image of the party it should project. There are those who would like to proejct a hard Hindutva, then the soft-Hindutva proponents and then the ones who don’t care either way as long as they can win. Some think Advani is a winner, some think the party would get a clean sweep only if Narendra Modi was the PM candidate. But in the event of NDA emerging winner with a simple majority in the Lok Sabha elections, very little scope for confusion afterwards.

Scenario 3 Third Front emerges winner

Unlikely. Very. The Communist Parties are set to lose a large number of seats in their strongholds in West Bengal and Kerala, and the others do not have enough seats to become winners by themselves.

Scenario 4 UPA or NDA wins more seats; but no majority

Ah. All hell breaks loose.

Now, everything is fair game. Assume it is the UPA which has won more seats than other formations. But no simple majority, and no one wants to come to power as a minority government. If UPA looks like a winner, the Samajwadi Party would throw their lot in with the UPA – after extracting assurances of their pound of flesh, of course. UPA-and SP would come to some kind of compromise for sure. The BSP is also another candidate. If Mayavati thinks that the BSP has no chance at all, she would decide to support the UPA too, either from outside, or by joining the UPA. The winner of more seats definitely has the advantage here. In case that does not happen, there is a good chance that some parties from the Third Front would break away and join the winning camp. Of course, if the NDA has also won seats pretty close in numbers to the UPA, they would also try to wean away parties from the Third Front and even the UPA.

And then there is BJD waiting outside to figure out who to support.

If it is NDA who wins more seats, they will have the advantage. The more extra seats than the UPA, the merrier. Third Front parties would extract something like the CMP out of the NDA to make sure their secular credentials are not compromised, and then plump for it.

Scenario 5 No clear winner

If neithe rthe NDA or the UPA emerge likely winner with substantially more seats than the other, and the Third Front performs well, this is the horror scenario. At this point, if Mayavati has enough seats, expect her to make a claim for the Prime Minister’s seat. But any of the smaller parties could make a claim too. And there is no shortage of candidates in the Third Front. It is unlikely that the major parties in the UPA or NDA would support the Third Front – their non-performance would damage their reputation and almostly certainly ruin their chances in the inevitable re-election. But the smaller parties in either NDA or UPA would have no such qualms. But if this happens, then there is a good chance of a totally unexpected Prime Minister ruling the country.

Scenarios 1 to 4 are more likely, of course.

If the NDA is the clear winner, the PM would obviously be LK Advani. But he is old. If he becomes the PM, there is a good chance that he might be indisposed anytime, and then there would be a mad scramble for the post of PM among the second-rung leaders in the BJP. Expect Narendra Modi would be a serious candidate then. Voting the Advani and the NDA might actually be voting for Narendra Modi. If you have a problem with him, watch it!

In the same manner, voting for the UPA would be voting for Manmohan Singh, or Rahul Gandhi. There is a major movement within the Congress which wants the Gandhi scion as the leader of the party, and expect those noises to get louder if the UPA emerges a clear winner. Manmohan Singh too is ageing, and as he himself would know, is hardly a popular leader. While Pranab Mukherjee or Chindambaram are super-efficient ministers, we are talking about the Congress where only loyalty and family matters.

All in all, anything could happen, guys. Remember this though – we are soon going to see a Rahul Gandhi vs Narendra Modi battle. Congress would be a single unit under Rahul Gandhi for sure – it comes naturally to them. But Narendra Modi has enough enemies within and without to make life difficult for him. That is another battle sure to commence a few years from now – and the winner may decide the future course of the country!

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20 Responses to “Who will be the winner of the 2009 Lok Sabha elections?”

  1. Hari said on Thursday, March 19, 2009, 13:34

    The 2009 Lok Sabh polls is likely to give a fractured result. The NDA may get around 210 seats with the BJP around 155 seats and the UPA also around also around 210 seats with Congress about 145 seats. Out of the others the BSP may get around 30 seats, Jayalalitha around 10, BJD around 8, and TDP and TRS around 10. Mamta may get around 15 seats, PMK in alliance with DMK may get 6, the NCP around 12 seats and the combined left 35 seats. The following scenarios emerge.
    1. UPA may get the support of the Left but loose Mamta and that would take their tally to 225. The independents and others who may constitute around 10- 15 seats are likely to support the UPA taking their tally to 240. This will still leave them short by about 30 seats. 2. The NDA may get the support of Mamta, Jayalalitha, TDP, and PMK which will take their numbers to 249. Now that leaves the NCP and BSP to take the final call to enable a Govt. formation.
    The Govt. is likely to be highly unstable and a could lead to another election in about a year.

  2. rahul said on Monday, March 23, 2009, 12:25

    surely BJP is going to make government in delhi .if we analysis statewise then find that in guj raj mp hp bihar jharkand mumbai hariyana uttaranchal and in many other states the bjp is in strong position .as far as the prediction by media that UPA will make gov will wrong as it was in 2004 when BJP lost and no body was thinking abt that .So let celebrate seeing advani as the pm and handling our country in strong hand and get rid off muslim appeasement MAJBOOT NETA NIRNAYAK SARKAR

  3. Rajeev said on Monday, March 30, 2009, 14:20

    all those who claim that NDA is gonna win and form the majority are in a dizzy situation completely, in this 2009 elections BSP is gonna fall short of its last performance in UP and SP is gonna gain, Cogress would secure a good ground and do better than the last time. INC gets 160 0r 170 seats on its own and would keep ahead of BJP solely as compared with. BJP is about 140 or less seats at its own, many allies of the THIRD-FRONT may junp into UPA for sure and it is on the cards so the UPA leads this next government. In Gujrat the INC would come to the same as last or may gain a few seats as well. i will be again here on May 16th when the counting begins!

  4. Vinayak said on Tuesday, April 7, 2009, 12:27

    It will be NDA government this time. In Karnataka only BJP will win 17 out of 28 seats.

  5. jagdishgowda said on Thursday, April 9, 2009, 9:58

    According to the latest trend, we cannot expect stable govt. at the center.but, either bjp or congress will evolve as a single largest party(140-160 seats).however other major parties like SP,BSP,RJD,JD(U),AIADMk,DMK and others support would be crucial.

    obviously, third and fourth front thatincludes LEFT,JD(S),NCP,TDP etc..could either spilt or stand by after election results .definately this fronts has no future “As it arise like that dissovels”.

    many dramas still to watch and let us see which govt will form govt.

  6. kuthiraimuthu said on Friday, April 10, 2009, 19:09

    Samathuva makkal katchi will hold a key position and karthik will be the prime minister this time. Sarath kumar sweeps the major seats in tamil nadu as well as siranjeevi in andhra. Every educated people aware of the above result.

  7. Anmol said on Tuesday, April 14, 2009, 20:21

    No Doubt NDA is gonna form the Govt this time no matter wht the rest try to do!

  8. Rajeev said on Wednesday, April 15, 2009, 5:50

    Dear Friends as you know BJP is known to speak loud and do short and so as the allies of it that makes NDA. Yes it is sure none the BJP nor the INC would obtain a full majority and thus the role of the THIRD-FRONT and the other small regional parties as INLD RLD BJD and others is crucial but let me assure you that the LEFT would again fall for UPA as they have no option left and they would try to rectify what they were offended upon with UPA. So. friends the next government is being led by Dr. Manmohan Singh. i request all of you friends to visit here on the evening of 16th May 2009 as we celebrate the UPA emergence the first to form the Government of India.

  9. Vivek Garg said on Monday, April 27, 2009, 14:26

    I hope NDA is the clear winner. Congress has ruled for more than 50 years and brought the country to this sorry state; it cannot see beyond the Nehru-Indira family- what a shame. It is high time the people of India reject this single family rule that has already caused enough damage.

  10. Rajiv Tandon said on Tuesday, April 28, 2009, 6:39

    To all you people who hope and believe that NDA will form the government at the center. I am with you.
    And to all you people who believe that UPA will form the government and promise to be back on the 16th of May to congratulate each other (God forbid), Congratulations to you all well in advance for the mishap that may come in the form of another PM presides and Madam decides government.

  11. Samir Ghosh said on Monday, May 4, 2009, 15:47

    BJP will get 167 seats.INC will get 120. BJP allies like AGP(4), JDU(16),SS(13), SAD(6),Ajit Singh(2) will get 41 seats. NDA total-208. Then TDP(20),BJD(7), ADMK(21), PMK(6),MDMK(2)and Mamta(15) will join NDA. NDA number will be 289. L K Advani will be next PM.

  12. Samir Ghosh said on Monday, May 4, 2009, 15:58

    In West Bengal Left will get 21 seats out of 42. INC will get 5, TMC(Mamta) will get 15 and BJP will get 1seat.

  13. manish said on Tuesday, May 5, 2009, 6:17

    NDA – 200
    , UPA – 180, THIRD FRONT -100, FOURTH FRONT-40, OTHER – 23

    , CHANCES FOR UPA = 180+ 40+ 100 – 10(MAMTA) – 25 (MAYA)=275, OPTION 2: NDA= 200+JAYA(25)+TDP(10)+MAMTA(10)+OTHERS=275
    BOTH THE CASES VERY DIFFCIULT TO SURVIVE:

  14. deepika said on Thursday, May 7, 2009, 7:41

    I think congress has been given enough time to do something for the betterment of the country.It has made some achievements too but they are less than the losses that it has brought to the country and the result is the sorry state or the worst state of the country .This time NDA govt. should take the control in its hand and should find out the solutions to upbring the country. as we going to be the organiser of the common wealth games next year so we need a strong ruler this time……..

    so people kindly vote this time ….bcause you are in need of it…..
    thanks!!!!!!

  15. raghuram said on Saturday, May 9, 2009, 11:55

    BJP is going to get the around 225 (BJP alone).Shocking for congress fans. But its true. Congress is going to get 80-85 seats.
    Recent survey say there is a hindutva wave in UP, Andhra (Telangana), some parts of TN, Kerala and pro BJP-SS wave in Maharashtra.This wave is just beginning and it will take a big wave then that in 1991(after babi demolition

  16. Samir Ghosh said on Sunday, May 10, 2009, 6:14

    In West Bengal Left will get 21 seats out of 42. INC will get 5. TMC(Mamta) will get 15 and BJP will get 1 seat.

  17. Samir Ghosh said on Sunday, May 10, 2009, 6:22

    BJP will get 167 seats. INC will get 120 seats. BJP allies like AGP(4), JDU(16),SS(13), SAD(6), Ajit Singh(2), will get 41 seats. Projected NDA total will be 208. Then TDP(20), BJD(7), ADMK(21), PMK(6), MDMK(2) and Mamta(15) will join NDA. total number will be 289. Lal Krishna Advani will be next PM.

  18. sumit said on Tuesday, May 12, 2009, 8:34

    i think NDA will win, if it doesnot happen then we should think still the people are illitrate,

    only NDA at this position can make INDIA a powerful country, as congress hav got no such policies to think countrie’s welfare, they jst think of VOTE BANK

  19. Rajeev said on Tuesday, May 12, 2009, 12:16

    NOW YOU SEE CHANGES IN THIS POLITICAL ATMOSPHERE THAT HAS BEEN CHANGING AT RAPID PACE EVEN A LAST PHASE OF POLL IS YET TO TAKE PLACE! NDA IS SHOWING THEY HAVE THEIR INTEGRITY IN THEMSELVES I MEAN AMONGST THEIR ALLIES BUT BY THE EVENING ON 16th MAY YOU ARE GONNA SEE THE POWER-AURORA AROUND THE CONGRESS AND ALL THE ALLIES OF THE NDA OR THIRD-FRONT RECEDING THE CONGRESS! THAT MEANS THE NEXT GOVT. FORMATION CLAIM WOULD BE TAKEN BY THE CONGRESS AS IT HAS EMERGED THE SINGLE LARGEST PARTY SECURING 180 MORE OR LESS SEATS!! CHEERS! THE CONGRESS HAS RULES AND IT KNOWS HOW TO RULE AND IT WILL BE RULING INDIA TILL THE PERSONS LIKE ME ARE ALIVE IN THIS LAND!!!! OK BUDDIES WE MEET 16th MAY 2009 AT 6 PM IST HERE AND I REQUEST YOU ALL FRIENDS TO TAKE IT NOTED!!

  20. manjir said on Thursday, May 14, 2009, 9:29

    d post poll scenerio wl b an unstable one, but with d bsp and left down, the 3rd front wl cease to exist with allies like bsp,tdp,aiadmk supporting d nda and other parties supporting d upa, especially rjd & sp.both the major coalitions wd do well, but none wl get the majority mark. get ready for another highly unstable cong govt.