Nothing much. The interesting thing is that exit polls by TV channels have predicted that the UPA would get higher number of seats in the Lok Sabha 2009 elections than the NDA – though the NDA would only behind by 15-30 seats.

That sure must be music to the ears of Congress. NDA and BJP have predictably rejected the exit polls.

Not just that. Just because an alliance would turn out to be the largest in the Lok Sabha does not mean that it would be called upon to form the government. The pre-poll NDA and UPA are one thing, the post-poll UPA and NDA are another. There will be strategic tie-ups, deals, there is no way anything can be defined at this point.

Would the exit polls be right? I frankly have no confidence in them. I still remember how exit polls in the 2004 elections went totally wrong. Nobody is even now sure which way Orissa would go. No one is sure which way tamil Nadu would go. Sure, the state had a high turn out when it went for voting, but does it mean an AIADMK whitewash – in which case, would Jayalalathiaa stick to the third front, or would be ally with the NDA, or even the Congress – or does it mean a split verdict in favour of the DMK and Congress?

Would Kerala deliver 15 seats to the UPA, or is it going to be ten seats? Which way is Maharashtra swinging? How well will Mulayam and Mayavati and even the Congress do in UP? What about Nitish Kumar and Bihar?

Too many unanswered questions. And I don’t think in a country where we have huge constituencies, exit polls or sampling makes any sense.

It is anyone’s game today, after 7 am. NDA might turn out to be the single largest alliance, or it could be the UPA.

Do reply in the comments about what you feel. Who is it going to be today?

The comments are not moderated for today. So go ahead and tell us who you think the largest alliance would be.

Why do I think this is worth specifically writing a post about?

Because a lot of us would go to a search engine and type out the question and expect an answer. I did. I found answers too, but it was not so easy. Not instantneous. Hopefully this will will help those who search.

Even though the 2009 Lok Sabha elections are conducted in five phases spread out over a month, the actual counting gets over in a day. By early morning, the countings start and you can catch it live on all TV news channels.

There would be leads, initial reports, close battles, and sweaty and thrilled politicians and spokesmen who rush from studio to studio trying to make sense of what they have in hand on counting day.

I usually enjoy watching the live counting and following updates. It is sort of fun to watch some of them psyched out of their wits when things go against them. The sad part, of course, is that there is another who is gloating – usually quite undeservedly.

So this time will it be the Iron Man, the Soft Sardar, the Maharashtra Machiavelli, or even some dark horse like Nitish Kumar or God forbid – Prakash Karat?

All that we know this Lok Sabha elections is that it could be anyone. I feel panicky just thinking about it.

Catch you all on counting day, when we will have seat counts and updates from morning on this site.

Tharoor does not have it easy, though. He had to wade through controversies, some of which were his own creation – the mistakes of a political amateur, unused to the cut-and-parry of grasroots politics. However, he has come through pretty much unscathed.

For the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, there is a moderate wave in favour of the opposition UDF – Kerala’s counterpart to the UPA at the Centre. Te past few years of internal bickering within the ruling LDF and CPI(M) has seen to that. Tharoor is well-placed to reap the rewards now.

Thiruvanthapuram is not a plce that is exactly kind to people. There are jokes about Tharoor’s lack of fluency in Malayalam, but balancing that is the knowledge that he has very good qualifications not just to become an MP, but possibly a minister in the future UPA dispensation at the center. The possibility that a senior cabinet post would go to their MP in case the UPA wins is temptation alright.

Add to that, the large number of young voters apathetic towards either of the two politican fronts have found a messiah in Shashi Tharoor. His comfort and exposure to UN and diplomatic circles appeals to the educated voter, and his essential decency compared to the average politician comes through.

People may still vote for the LDF, but that would hardly be because of anyone believing their accusations that he is pro-Israel or a CIA agent. Kerala  has seen the Left calling even your average road-side tea shop owner a CIA agent at the slightest provocation. Party loyalties though run deep, and swinging the small amount of independent voters would be the key for Tharoor in Thiruvananthapuram seat.

Not that all of this is enough. Kerala has been known to spring many a surprise, and we would not know till the final results are announced.

If Shashi Tharoor has played his game well, Kerala could finally have a minister they can look up to.

The BJP leader submitted the nomination papers to the District Electoral Officer and District Magistrate of Varanasi Ajay Kumar Upadhyay.

Photo: Murli Manohar Joshi with LK Advani

Murli Manohar Joshi went up to the collectorate to file his papers in an open truck followed by his entourage. He filed the papers in four sets as proposed by Mayor of Varanasi Kaushlendra Singh, former BJP MP Shankar Prasad Jaisawal, BJP MLC-Kedar Nath Singh and senior BJP leader Anant Dev Sharma respectively.

Joshi is presently is the first candidate to file papers from the Varanasi constituency for the 2009 General elections to the Lok Sabha.

Murli Manohar Joshi is known as a hardliner in the BJP, more in sync with the objectives of the RSS than most other leaders. He has had prime ministerial ambitions earlier, but LK Advani has conclusively overshadowed him in the lst couple of years and is now officially the NDA candidate for PM. The BJP and NDA has always been in two minds about Joshi, as on the one hand he was seen as supporting the cultural and education agenda of the RSS, while others found him an embarassment and regressive.

The polls in Varanasi will be held in the first phase of elections, on 16 April 2009. The first phase of the Lok Sabha elections will see polling in 123 Lok Sabha constituencies.

Meanwhile there is also a FIR that has been registered against the former minister for violating the model code of conduct by holding a meeting in Varanasi without prior permission. Murli Manohar Joshi is accused of of holding a meeting in front of the Company Garden gate, without prior permission of the district administration yesterday, police said. The FIR has been registered under section 144, as well as the model code of conduct.

Murli Manohar Joshi will have stiff competition from the BJP’s rebel legislator Ajay Rai who will contest on a Samajwadi Party ticket in these elections. And a third potential candidate in the fray in Varanasi is Mukhtar Ansari, a man with a criminal past who has quit the Samajwadi Party and will now be the candidate for Uttar Pradesh’s ruling Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).

Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) have got into a seat-sharing deal with each other, leaving their UPA partner Indian National Congress in the lurch.

Congress was counting on contesting in more seats from Bihar state in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, and had believed it would be able to wrangle a better deal for itself from the Bihar strongman Lalu Prasad Yadav. According to the seat-sharing deal for the Lok Sabha elections announced by RJD and LJP, there will be just three seats left for the Congress. This would mean that unless fruitful negotiations take place between RJD, LJP and Congress, Congress would have to fight on its own in Bihar. Not a welcome state of affairs for the leading part of the UPA under any circumstances.

As a part of the seat-sharing agreement between RJD and Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) for Bihar, RJD chief Lalu Prasad conceded four Lok Sabha seats from his party’s quota to the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP). LJP, according to the agreement, will now contest 12 seats in Bihar, up from the 8 seats which had been set aside for it in 2004, but still short of the 16 constituencies demanded by it. The agreement was made yesterday. “The alliance will happen cent per cent,” Union Minister and LJP chief Ram Vilas Paswan told reporters. RJD will contest 25 seats in Bihar.

Paswan also explained, “Some adjustments are made when talks happen. Patliputra was also among the 16 seats we demanded but Ranjan Yadav whom we wanted to field there has now left,” he added. He also clarified that the alliance will be on honourable conditions and all allies would contest on equal footing.

Lalu Prasad Yadav also offered words on the occasion, “We’re fighting to form a secular government,” Lalu told reporters. “We’re with the UPA and will remain with the UPA,” he added.

That may be so technically – but the much-vanunted trust between Sonia Gandhi and Lalu Prasad Yadav has now been broken, and the Congress is taking it as a betrayal. That way, this is very similar to the way Naveen patnaik’s BJD ditched the BJP in Orissa when it came to deciding on seats for the 2009 Lok Sabha elections.

Between the two strong caste-leaders Paswan and Lalu, there is a good chance that they would be able to put up a strong fight against the reasonably popular Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar of Janata Dal (United). In the last general election, the UPA had bagged 29 seats from Bihar state, while the JD(U)-BJP combine could manage just 11. The RJD bagged 22, while the LJP could only win four.

The seats set aside for the LJP include Hajipur (SC), Samastipur (SC), Nawada, Paschim Champaran, Supaul, Araria, Purnia, Katihar, Begusarai, Nalanda and Jamui (SC). For the 12th seat, there is a toss-up between Muzaffarpur and Gaya (SC).

No Congress leader was present at the press conference. When asked about the absence of Congress leaders, the railway minister said “We have not called them to the press conference.” In the last elections, the three parties RJD, Congress and LJP had contested under a pre-poll agreement in which CPI and NCP were also a part. CPI is now no longer with the UPA and NCP has already announced that it would contest 14 seats.

Of the four constituencies from where it had contested in 2004, Congress had won Aurangabad, Madhubani and Sasaram seats.

Lalu and Paswan had parted ways in the 2005 assembly elections. This time around however Lalu is said to have been under tremendous pressure from its MPs as well as senior leaders who wanted him to not contest less than 24 seats.

Congress has the interests of the UPA to keep in mind, and potential government forming once the elections are over. So the party would find it difficult to take on RJD and LJP alleging betrayal, as that might boomerang after the election results are announced.