Ah, tricky question. We have only four more hours to go for counting to begin, and what is the relevance of such a question at this point?
Nothing much. The interesting thing is that exit polls by TV channels have predicted that the UPA would get higher number of seats in the Lok Sabha 2009 elections than the NDA – though the NDA would only behind by 15-30 seats.
That sure must be music to the ears of Congress. NDA and BJP have predictably rejected the exit polls.
Not just that. Just because an alliance would turn out to be the largest in the Lok Sabha does not mean that it would be called upon to form the government. The pre-poll NDA and UPA are one thing, the post-poll UPA and NDA are another. There will be strategic tie-ups, deals, there is no way anything can be defined at this point.
Would the exit polls be right? I frankly have no confidence in them. I still remember how exit polls in the 2004 elections went totally wrong. Nobody is even now sure which way Orissa would go. No one is sure which way tamil Nadu would go. Sure, the state had a high turn out when it went for voting, but does it mean an AIADMK whitewash – in which case, would Jayalalathiaa stick to the third front, or would be ally with the NDA, or even the Congress – or does it mean a split verdict in favour of the DMK and Congress?
Would Kerala deliver 15 seats to the UPA, or is it going to be ten seats? Which way is Maharashtra swinging? How well will Mulayam and Mayavati and even the Congress do in UP? What about Nitish Kumar and Bihar?
Too many unanswered questions. And I don’t think in a country where we have huge constituencies, exit polls or sampling makes any sense.
It is anyone’s game today, after 7 am. NDA might turn out to be the single largest alliance, or it could be the UPA.
Do reply in the comments about what you feel. Who is it going to be today?
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