Humira to be largest selling drug with $10 bn sales; Teva among top 10 by 2016

Abbott’s Humira to treat rheumatoid arthritis will be the top-selling drug with a sales of about $10.1 billion by the year 2016, according to a new forecast World Preview 2016 report published by EvaluatePharma, a provider of pharma and biotech analysis.

By 2016, Humira will replace the cholesterol-lowering drug Lipitor as the world’s biggest-selling drug.

Following Lipitor’s patent expiry in 2011, Humira will become the biggest product in 2012 with sales of $8.28bn and will retain its top spot until 2016 when sales could exceed $10bn,

Although Humira could breach the $10bn annual sales mark in 2016, the new forecasts suggest that  Lipitor’s record as the industry’s biggest selling product is unlikely to be challenged.

Sales of Pfizer’s cholesterol lowering agent peaked at a staggering $13.7bn in 2006. Indeed, even five years after its patent expiry, sales of $2.69bn are still expected in 2016.

As such, although some of these products are forecast to be generating billions of dollars in revenues, it seems likely that Lipitor will remain the industry’s most successful drug – in sales terms – for the foreseeable future.

However, Pfizer will still be the biggest seller of medicines.

Roche’s drug Avastin had been widely expected to emerge as the biggest blockbuster drug following patent expiry next year for Lipitor. However, Avastin has experienced some clinical setbacks this year and as a result Humira is now forecast to be the top drug with sales of $10.1bn in 2016.

Avastin’s crown could be slipping with prostate cancer failure. This would have been a significant new indication for the product, which is currently approved in colorectal, lung, breast and kidney cancers and glioblastoma, an agressive form of brain cancer.

The prostate cancer results followed similarly disappointing results in stomach cancer, a much smaller indication, and it certainly seems that the limits to Avastin’s powers are being more fully understood.

Analysts already comprehend the potential in Humira, which is not being trialled in new settings, but sales forecasts for Avastin include contributions from new cancer types and assume continued growth in existing indications, such as breast cancer. Only conditional approval was granted in this setting and later this year the FDA will decide whether enough evidence has been gathered to grant full approval, an important event for  Avastin and  Roche.

In terms of therapy areas biotech products targeting cancer and rheumatic disorders look set to dominate the scene, accounting for six of the top 10 in 2016.

Only Glaxo’s respiratory medicine Advair, which is proving incredibly resilient to generic challengers, and AstraZeneca’s cholesterol fighter Crestor, will be the leading conventional small molecules drugs in 2016.

Roche’s will still come second in terms of global sales by 2016 with $8.9 billion. arthritis drug Enbrel, promoted by Amgen/Pfizer/Takeda will be the third largest with sales topping $7.3 billion.  Rituxan for cancer by Roche/Biogen ($6.8 bn), anticholesterol drug  Crestor by AstraZeneca ($6.3 bn),  breast cancer drug Herceptin by Roche ($6.2 bn), arthritis treatment Remicade by Johnson & Johnson ($5.7 bn), Lantus insulin by Sanofi-Aventis ($5.3 bn), Advair/Seretide for asthma by GlaxoSmithKline ($5.2 bn) and Prolia by Amgen/Daiichi for osteoporosis ($5.2 bn).

“The next seven years will see huge growth in sales of complex biologics, driven in part by the premium price they can command and the industry’s productivity in getting these compounds to market,” stated Jonathan de Pass, EvaluatePharma CEO.

Meanwhile, Pfizer, through a strategy of mergers and acquisitions including last year’s $68bn mega-merger with Wyeth, will cling to the top spot in prescription sales.

Merck & Co, which has recently acquired Schering-Plough for $41bn, will occupy the second position.Merck will be followed by Novartis with $46 bn sales. The fourth to ten positions in 2016 global sales will be occupied by Roche ($43.9 bn), Sanofi-Aventis ($38.9bn), GlaxoSmithKline (38.7 bn), Abbott Laboratories ($26.1 bn), Johnson & Johnson ($24.8 bn),     AstraZeneca ($22.1bn) and Teva Pharmaceutical ($20.8 bn)

A surprise in the top pharma sales list is the entrance of Teva, the Israeli generics company which will become an increasingly large pharma player as the industry’s patent cliff looms. Over the next seven years Teva will push into the top ten ahead of some more traditional big pharma groups like Bristol-Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly and Amgen, the report said.

Generics players such as Teva impressive growth is due to a continued sales erosion of blockbuster products coming off patent.

EvaluatePharma was the company to supply forecasts of global drug sales and now provides standardised worldwide financial and forecast models with consensus product forecasts to 2016, data on R&D pipelines, licensing deals, patent risk and M&A deals, along with analytical tools that include, Merge Company and Peer Group Analyzer and over 3000 global product NPVs (Net Present Value) linked to share price.

In 2007 EvaluatePharma(R)Alpha launched offering a valuation service designed to quantify market events and the impact on product, portfolio and company valuation – NPV Analyzer, Calendar of Events and the daily news service EP Vantage.

Last year, Evaluate Ltd, the parent company of EvaluatePharma, was awarded the Queen’s Award for Enterprise: International Trade.