H1N1 swine flu vaccine market to cross $7 bn in 2011, says Markets & Markets

Vaccine makers see windfall sales as  H1N1 swine flu pandemic looms large

H1N1 influenza (swine flu) vaccine market is forecasted to grow beyond $7 billion in next two years, according to a report by Markets and Markets, a research and consulting firm.

H1N1 swine flu vaccine market, which is currently estimated to be of 676 million in 2009 with first lot of doses being commercialized on 30th September’ 2009, will peak to $7.03 billion in 2011 growing at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 222.4% from 2009 to 2011.

The high-speed growth, however, will settle down by 2012 to 30% for the period of 2009 to 2012.

The reason for the sudden settle down of the growth is that it is expected that most of the world population will be immunized by the end of 2011, said the report.

H1N1 pandemic influenza outbreak opened the gates for the drugs such as Tamiflu in the initial phase for the curing of the disease but the following phase will see a shift from curing to prevention.

The growing emphasis on prevention of H1N1 swineflu infection will spur greater demands for vaccines. H1N1 swineflu vaccine market is the forecast for the upcoming vaccines for the prevention of the disease among the unaffected population.

H1N1 swineflu vaccines market is classified for the intramuscular vaccines and intranasal vaccines.

Intramuscular H1N1 swine flu vaccines will cater 80-85% of market revenues and the remaining will be tapped by the intranasal vaccines.

The initial lot of H1N1 swine flu vaccines will be of egg based and cell based manufacturing.

The market forecast is from late 2009 as the first lot of doses are expected to be rolled out in the first week of October 2009.

The first movers of the in the vaccines market are Glaxo Smith Kline (GSK), Novartis, CSL, Medimmune, Baxter, Sinovec and Sanofi Pastuer.

Medimmune is the only producer of the intranasal vaccine whereas other companies are expected to come out with intramuscular vaccines.

Glaxo Smith Kline (GSK), Novartis, CSL, Medimmune, Baxter, Sinovec and Sanofi Pastuer have got approvals for their first lots from the governments of the various countries such as U.S., U.K., France, China, Denmark and Australia.

The involvement of government bodies, increased awareness about prevention and pandemic situation of the influenza is driving the market for H1N1 swine flu vaccines.

Due to intensive ongoing research and technology introduction, the market players are compelled to understand the market dynamics, innovations,  pricing, products, marketing and regulatory framework of the market.

Currently, H1N1 swine flu vaccine makers are reaping the benefits of a global pandemic are reporting windfall sales from flu drugs and H1N1 vaccines.

Swiss drugmaker Novartis AG said it expects the H1N1 swine flu vaccine to contribute about $400 million to $700 million of sales in the fourth quarter.

Baxter International Inc, which makes a cell culture-based flu vaccine, expects nearly $40 million in H1N1 swine flu vaccine sales in the fourth quarter.

GlaxoSmithKline Plc, Sanofi-Aventis SA and AstraZeneca Plc are all expected to boost their revenues from swine flu-related sales when they report fourth-quarter results.

Johnson & Johnson bought out a stake in Dutch biotech Crucell NV for $444 million to have a firmer foothold in to the influenza vaccine and drug development.

Abbott Laboratories Inc bought drugs unit of Belgium’s Solvay SA, including Solvay’s Dutch cell-based flu vaccine production facility for $6.6 billion.

Merck & Co Inc has struck a deal to distribute seasonal flu vaccine made by Australia’s CSL Ltd.

Global H1N1 swine flu threat has awakened governments from Egypt to India to the need for flu vaccines.

Novavax Inc has launched a 4,000-patient clinical trial in Mexico of its H1N1 vaccine, which is grown in caterpillar cells rather than the conventional chicken eggs.

Swiss-based Bank Sarasin & Co analysts estimate H1N1 swine flu pandemic vaccine sales will be worth a total of $7.6 billion, even with a mild pandemic. A severe pandemic would result in total vaccine sales of $18 billion.