Aircraft emissions to double over next 20 years, warns report

16 May, 2008: A new report has warned that greenhouse-gas emissions from aircraft are rising dramatically. The authors of the report have predicted that these emissions will more than double over the next 20 years.

Researchers at the Centre for Climate Law and Policy at the Australian National University, situated in Canberra, Australia, has found that the huge increase in aircraft emissions around the world is not being offset by improvements in fuel efficiency.

China and India, the report says, are behind the global boom in aviation and suggests that governments should start taxing aviation.

The website abc.net.au quoted Andrew Macintosh, associate director of Australian National University’s Centre for Climate Law and Policy, as saying: “The aviation industry is growing very rapidly off the back of strong economic growth in places such as China and India, as well as the developed world. This is a sector that is going gang-busters. So long as those economies are continuing to grow, then we’re going to see very strong growth from the aviation sector and with that, we’re going to see a large increase in emissions.”

The report produced by Macintosh and a colleague reveals that emissions from aviation will rise by 144% within 20 years.

“At the moment,” Andrew Macintosh expalined, “international aviation accounts for about 1.3% of carbon dioxide emissions and the whole aviation sector is responsible for about 2.2%, so it doesn’t sound like a lot. But aviation also emits a number of other gases. When you take them into account, you’re looking at a total impact that’s around 6% to 8% of total human impact on the climate. With that growth that we’re forecasting, it’s going to become a lot more severe over the next two decades.”

Yet aviation is not included in the Kyoto Protocol that is designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, Macintosh told the website abc.net.au in an interview.

The European Union is pushing to include air and sea travel in the agreement that is currently being negotiated to follow the Kyoto Protocol in 2012. “But,” Macintosh added, “what we would like to see is more movement by all governments to try and come up with a way of imposing a price on the carbon emissions from this sector, in doing so, suppressing the demand growth that we're expected to see over the next while, and also to promote innovation.”

According to him, at the international level, the main push at the moment is to incorporate the air and sea travel sector into emissions trading schemes, “but I think that’s not going to work or it won’t work quick enough. I’d rather see a tax set at a relatively low level and then for the industry or government to set up a large fund that they can use to put into offsets.”

The website quoted a consultant of the aviation industry as reacting to Macintosh’s suggestion on taxing: “Taxes will not reduce demand and will not be accepted by airline companies. The aviation industry has a clear idea and understanding of emissions, or at least the potential for emissions to grow considerably, particularly with the amount of growth expected in the market over the next few years. The question is how to tackle it and at the moment, they see taxation, or at least imposing some sort of financial penalty, as being a negative way of approaching it.”