Carbon emissions from aircraft will be far higher than earlier estimates, says study

The failure of the aviation industry worldwide in checking rising levels of carbon emissions could result in the “worst case scenario” for climate change, an unpublished study conducted by the world’s leading experts has warned. “The report prepared by four government-funded research bodies is one of the most authoritative estimates of the growth of pollutants produced by the aviation industry,” according to British newspaper The Independent.

The report titled Trends in Global Noise and Emissions From Commercial Aviation for 2000 through 2025 was presented to the USA/Europe Air Traffic Management Seminar held in Barcelona, Spain, in 2007 but it was withheld from wider publication, the newspaper added.

The USA/Europe Air Traffic Management Seminar was co-organised by the Federal Aviation Authority (FAA) of the United States.

The authors of the report included experts at the United States Department of Transport; Eurocontrol, the European air traffic management body; Manchester Metropolitan University; and QinetiQ, a technology company.

The eye-opener study – which combined data produced by the leading emissions-modelling laboratories in the United States, the United Kingdom and France – brought to light the following fearsome facts, among others:

* Airlines are pumping 20% more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere than estimates suggest – with total emissions set to reach between 1.2 billion tones and 1.5 billion tonnes annually by 2025.
* The number of people seriously affected by aircraft noise will rise from 24 million in 2000 to 30.3 million by 2025. This huge rise in noise pollution caused by aircraft is despite the introduction of “quieter” jets.
* The amount of nitrogen oxides around airports, generated by aircraft engines, will rise from 2.5 million tonnes in 2000 to 6.1 million tonnes in 2025.

Jeff Gazzard, a spokesman for the Aviation Environment Federation – the United Kingdom-based non-profit group concerned with the adverse environmental impacts of aviation, including noise, air quality, climate change and sustainability issues – was quoted by The Independent as commenting: “Growth of carbon dioxide emissions on this scale will comfortably outstrip any gains made by improved technology and ensure aviation is an even larger contributor to global warming by 2025 than previously thought. Governments must take action to put a cap on air transport’s unrestrained growth.”

The report also forecasts that the level of carbon dioxide will rise from its current level of 670 million tonnes to nearly 1.48 billion tonnes by 2025 – this surpasses the previous estimate, made in 2004, of 1.03 billion tonnes by 2025.

The forecast is also significant in that the highest forecast for aviation emissions, made earlier by the International Panel on Climate Change, will be met or even exceeded.

It may be noted that the aviation industry is exempt from the Kyoto protocol on reducing greenhouse gases. And, the aviation industry has been claiming that, with the introduction of new technology over the next 25 years, the contribution of aircraft to global emissions of carbon dioxide will rise from 2% of the total to just 5% by 2050.

But many experts assert that the actual figure will be much higher that what the aviation industry claims, since the industry’s figure does not include the reductions in carbon dioxide emissions being made elsewhere.