Hybrid and diesel vehicles market set to boom: JD Power
In the next seven years, hybrid and diesel vehicles' market share is expected to touch 11 per cent; JD Power expects 44 new diesel and hybrid models in US by 2012.
28 June, 2005: In another 7 years, it would not such a rare sight to see a hybrid vehicle. Or a diesel vehicle, if you are in the US, says J.D.
Power-LMC Automotive Forecasting Services.
According to their forecast, hybrids that currently account for 0.5 percent of the U.S. market are expected to conquer
3.5 percent of the American market by 2012. Diesels - a category of vehicles the USA has still not taken to - will grow from 3 per cent to 7.5 per cent.
"Higher gas prices are acting as a catalyst for automakers and consumers to find alternatives to the traditional gasoline
internal combustions engine," said Anthony Pratt, senior manager of global powertrain forecasting at J.D.
Power-LMC. "We anticipate this will lead to dramatic growth, particularly with diesels, over the next several years."
Honda, Toyota are the pioneers in the hybrid car market now. However, they are becoming
moRe commonplace due to licensing of their technologies by other Japanese and American companies, and the new trend towards hybrid SUVs. Diesels have long been considered unclean and noisy; but the new
range of high tech diesels are changing that perception.
While automakers continue to design hybrid vehicles, they also are turning to diesels to help them offer more
fuel-efficient alternatives. However, new U.S. Environmental Protection Agency regulations, which go into effect in
2007-2008, require cars and light-duty trucks to meet Tier 2 emissions standards of 0.07 grams of NOx per mile. Diesel
technology, coupled with low-sulfur fuel that will be available at gas stations next year, will have to meet these standards
before these vehicles can be sold in the United States.
"Most consumers are already familiar with diesel technology, whereas automakers are still trying to educate consumers
about hybrid technology," Pratt said. "Outside of meeting future emission standards, the biggest challenge for
automakers concerning diesel technology will be convincing consumers that today's diesel engines have increased
performance and run cleaner and quieter than previous-generation diesels."
The JD Power reports say that the price premium associated with alternative powertrain vehicles continues to be a prohibiting factor that will limit the potential for both hybrid- and diesel-powered vehicles. We are not so sure about that. After al, the new Honda Accord Hybrid and even the Toyota Prius are available at more or less the price points of their pure gasoline counterparts.
Pratt notes that manufacturers will have to reduce this premium to attract buyers who are not currently motivated to purchase these vehicles as a means to improve the environment, or as a means to save money by consuming less fuel.
Despite the price premium, the study shows the number of hybrid electric models on the market is expected to increase
from 10 in 2005 to 44 by 2012, while the number of diesel models is expected to grow from 14 to 26.
"The bulk of the growth in hybrid models will be in SUVs and midsize cars," Pratt said. "The bloom of diesel vehicles will
be in the pickup truck segment, as well as the luxury car and SUV segments."
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